I suppose whether or not one believes local councils are there for the good of the locality or are in it to feather their own nests will determine one’s participation in local elections. This coming Thursday will see England’s schools, church halls and community centres renting out space for the purpose of voting into office 8,000 councillors and four mayors outside of the capital. 230 councils are up for grabs, but for those who have faith in the system at a local level, the humble polling card will no longer be enough to secure a ballot paper; ID will now be required. A passport, driving licence, bus pass or Oyster card will suffice, and it’s just as well I’ve no interest in voting as I personally have none of these, nor do I possess any such card with a mug-shot on it apart from a pass for the British Library about ten years out of date. This new innovation is supposed to crack down on voter fraud, but as most of that seems to emanate from postal votes, showing ID at a polling station appears to be little more than another pointless inconvenience imposed on the electorate by a government that gives the impression it wants to monitor our every movement. An estimated two million people don’t have the required ID and a mere 4% have applied for it in the run up to these elections; whether or not this will affect the turn-out will be clear come Friday.
Of course, local elections rarely galvanise the electorate in the same way as a General Election; but with the latter anticipated as possibly appearing next year, the Party leaders are busy drumming up support for their respective teams and are viewing these local elections as a potential dummy-run for the biggie. The only times I can really recall local elections capturing the imagination is when they’ve been held in the wake of some seismic political event – Brexit being the obvious one – and they’ve given the public the earliest opportunity to deliver a few bloody noses. This time round, the cost-of-living thingy and its accompanying inflation seem destined to govern whereabouts voters place their crosses, whilst two old mainstays, crime and the NHS, will probably figure too. Environmental issues will no doubt prove influential in some of the more rural seats, though with water companies pumping shit into rivers without any apparent conscience whatsoever, it’s no wonder. And whilst the Lib Dems will be hoping to capitalise on last year’s trio of by-election victories, I guess most will regard the local elections as a litmus test as to whether or not the Labour Party has sufficiently recovered from the disaster of December 2019 to go back to its constituencies and prepare for government.
After 13 years of running the country – some might say into the ground – the Conservative Party inevitably has a weariness attached to it in the eyes of many voters; the Tories might keep changing their leader in order to rebrand themselves as a new improved flavour, but the taste has been pretty rancid for a long time. Rishi Sunak hasn’t proven to be as spectacularly inept as his immediate predecessor and he doesn’t divide opinion as strongly as the one before her, but it’s difficult to predict if the Party’s lowly polling on a national level will impact upon its local performance. The Tories did badly last time local elections were held in England four years ago, but Labour didn’t do much better either; the Lib Dems and Greens did okay, though whichever Party emerges as the dominant one in 2023 faces something of a challenge. Councils across England are hardly universally beloved as it is – cutting public services to the bone and raising council tax at a time when many feel all they’re earning money for is to pay bills; and to imagine any of that will alter simply through a change of colour demonstrates a belief in the system bordering on stupidity.
The Tories are in a moderately better place than they were when these local elections were contested in 2019; at the time, Theresa May’s rudderless leadership was dragging the Party down the polls, and indeed she resigned just a few weeks later; but they’re still only hovering around 29% four years on. Mind you, Labour were also struggling in 2019; it was the fag end of the Corbyn experiment, with the familiar spectre of anti-Semitism hanging over the Party and some of its more vocal MPs backing a second referendum, something that served to alienate it even further from its traditional voting base – as was evidenced by the red rubble where walls once stood seven months later. Polling-wise, at least, Labour is in a healthier position than in 2019; Keir Starmer may radiate the charisma of a trouser press, but tiredness with the Tories and the purging of the Jezza faithful has helped push Labour up to around 44% in the opinion polls. Labour and the Conservatives were only separated by six points four years ago; today the gap is 15. The one consolation the Tories can take from this figure is that the gap between them and Labour was 30 points around the time of Liz Truss’s resignation. Whether or not this will be reflected in how they fare on Thursday, however, remains to be seen. The Lib Dems, for example, stood at 8% in 2019, yet made more than 700 gains in that year’s local elections
Local elections can sometimes offer electoral virgins the opportunity to flex their first-time voter muscles before the real deal comes along. With these in mind, the BBC News website has been offering tips in ‘Newsround’ fashion, emphasising that one is not allowed to take a selfie inside the polling station. My God, that must feel like Stalinist state suppression to those who cannot go anywhere without recording their presence for posterity and posting proof on Facebook. Voters are also advised not to update their social media accounts at the polling station as well, having to wait until stepping outside to court all those vital ‘likes’ and the odd love-heart emoji by declaring which way they voted. ‘So unfair’, as Kevin the Teenager would’ve said 30 years ago. Other essential questions answered include ‘Can I bring my pet?’; ‘Can my children come?’; ‘Can I use my own pen or pencil?’; ‘Can I wear political clothing?’; and ‘Can I vote if I’ve been drinking?’ The answer to the last question, incidentally, is ‘People who are drunk can vote, unless they are disruptive’. Well, why not? Our elected representatives have often had a few ‘tired and emotional’ moments in the Commons, after all.
The main focus in the MSM is naturally on the major parties, especially because they – and the pundits – have one eye on the next General Election at the moment; but local elections also give independent candidates unattached to the political big guns the chance to make their mark. Five district councils in Sussex, Surrey and Kent are led by independents; some represent residents’ associations and can be seen as ‘democracy in action’ in that these are non-party amateurs pushing grassroots issues that are specific to their region – in the South East the main fight seems to be against over-development, for example. Disillusionment with the big parties may be rife in 2023, but it was fairly strong in 2019 too, and this apathy has certainly helped where independents are concerned. Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories need to bear this in mind when they’re canvassing and regarding local elections as little more than a warm-up for the main event, the political Golden Globes to the General Election Oscars.
Nevertheless, by the time all the votes have been counted around Friday lunchtime, the news reports will understandably view the results through the major party prism and all talk will be of a Conservative collapse in 2024 or a Labour landslide or…well, we’ve been here before. And, whilst a week may be a long time in politics, twelve months can be an aeon; that’s if the next General Election is in 2024, mind; the latest date it can be held is 28 January 2025. Somehow, I’ve a feeling Rishi Sunak will leave it to the very last minute. That’s if he’s still Prime Minister then, of course; the way things have gone over the past year, who knows?
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