LIVING ON BORROWED TIME

Elected on the strength of a promise yet to be delivered, the SNP has always relied upon its raison d’être as a form of insurance that will guarantee it the enduring support of Scots who dream of breaking away from the UK. This enticing carrot dangled before the Scottish electorate means the Party has been routinely free to exert its inherent authoritarianism, to push ahead with increasingly illiberal proposals and legislation, safe and secure in the knowledge that the pro-independence brigade will always forgive it like a parent always forgives a wayward child who happens to be the favourite. The Gender Recognition Reform Bill, the Hate Crime and Public Order Act, the notion of the State appointing a ‘named person’ to effectively raise (indoctrinate?) children instead of their parents – it’s hard to imagine these and a raft of other insane ideas gaining any sort of traction had they not been proposed by a Party that knows it can get away with it. Well, maybe the SNP has been guilty of a little complacency when it comes to this bedrock of support, convinced its most devoted followers will turn a blind eye to what they don’t like because the Party has always promised to fight for the one thing they do.

The murky financial affairs that provoked a police investigation and culminated in the arrest of both former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her husband, former SNP Chief Executive Peter Murrell last year culminated in Mr Sturgeon being charged with embezzlement of Party funds a couple of weeks ago. The saintly Sturgeons have now been tainted by corruption, just as Wee Ms Krankie’s predecessor Alex Salmond was tainted by sexual assault allegations (which he was eventually acquitted of) – all of which has the unhealthy aroma of the same sleaze one would ordinarily associate with the SNP’s bête noire, the Conservative Party. How holier than thou. And now the sham of an alleged alternative to the nest-featherers of Westminster has been exposed once more as the SNP have mirrored the Labour Party in scaling back their unrealisable Net Zero commitments, perhaps belatedly becoming aware that embracing a trendy cause might win brownie points with the chattering classes but won’t necessarily win the votes of the masses; sharing Holyrood with the Scottish Greens has been the first casualty of this U-turn, ending a cuckoo coalition in place since 2021.

As First Minister Humza Yousaf took it upon himself to curtail the Bute House agreement, Lorna Slater, co-leader of the Greens, declared ‘We no longer have confidence in a progressive government in Scotland doing the right thing for climate and nature.’ Her partner-in-whine Patrick Harvie said that Yousaf ‘needs to bear the consequences of that reckless and damaging decision’; the decision in question saw Yousaf pre-empt the Greens by scrapping the arrangement before his disgruntled coalition colleagues beat him to it, catching them by surprise. ‘He still hasn’t really given any clarity on why he made such a dramatic U-turn and broken a promise on which he was elected as First Minister,’ said Harvie. ‘So it’s very difficult to see how you can have a conversation that leads to a constructive outcome on the basis of that lack of trust.’ Emboldened by the sudden switch of allegiances at Holyrood, opposition parties can smell blood and Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross has lodged a motion of no confidence in Humza Yousaf, a vote scheduled to take place next week. Jackie Baillie, deputy Labour leader north of the border says Yousaf is finished, but wants an election rather than the SNP echoing the Westminster Tories by simply replacing the leader without any contribution from the electorate. ‘We’ve had enough,’ she said. ‘It’s not just Humza Yousaf; it’s actually his entire government that’s failing.’

The First Minister has retaliated by accusing the Tories of game-playing, claiming the coalition has served its purpose and has survived in government 19 times longer than Liz Truss managed in Downing Street; then again, a lettuce lasted longer than Liz Truss managed in Downing Street, so as boasts go it’s not a great advert for an administration. Following the end of the power-sharing arrangement, the Scottish Greens have now vowed not to back the beleaguered Yousaf in the no-confidence vote, something the SNP MSPs initially didn’t appear to have anticipated when they welcomed their leader’s decision. Despite giving their support to some of the SNP’s more bonkers proposals in recent years, both Labour and the Lib Dems will be voting against Yousaf; the race-baiting First Minister will be dependent on abstentions and the loyalty of his own MSPs to get him over the line in what threatens to be an extremely tight vote, though a crucial intervention could come from the woman he beat to the leadership of the Party, Ash Regan. Whereas the Greens also claimed their disillusionment with government was exacerbated by the Scottish NHS suspending the prescribing of puberty blockers to ‘trans kids’ in the wake of the Cass Review’s findings – yes, these are the kind of people the SNP was happy to get into bed with – Ash Regan, who left the SNP and joined Alex Salmond’s Alba Party, is opposed to gender self-identification and has vowed to ‘defend the rights of women and children’.

When Ash Regan defected to Alba, Humza Yousaf said the departure of the former SNP Minister was ‘not a particularly great loss’ to the Party, but Alex Salmond says that his Party’s sole MSP is ‘the most powerful MSP in the Scottish Parliament’ now that Yousaf has managed to alienate all the opposition; regarding Humza Yousaf’s role in terminating the power-sharing agreement with the Greens, Salmond added, ‘His tactics today have been Kamikaze. If Humza Yousaf was a horse I wouldn’t be backing him.’ The SNP can count 63 MSPs, whilst their opponents number 65. Humza Yousaf might be publicly vowing to fight on and refusing to resign should the vote next week go against him, but his position is somewhat precarious. If the Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and Greens all stick to their guns and vote against him en masse, he may well be forced to reach out to Ash Regan and bow to her demands in exchange for her support, weakening his dwindling authority even further in the process. Although a defeat in the no-confidence vote is not binding and Yousaf will not be obliged to stand down, he would be expected to do so. Labour leader Anas Sarwar said, ‘It’s a matter now of when – not if – Humza Yousaf will step down as First Minister. It would be untenable for the SNP to assume it can impose another unelected First Minister on Scotland.’

Although Humza Yousaf is up against it at Holyrood, the SNP’s main man south of the border, Stephen Flynn, has declared the First Minister will ‘come out fighting’ and has stated he will not stand for the SNP leadership himself in what he sees as the unlikely event of Yousaf losing the vote and walking the plank. With the balance of power potentially resting in the hands of his one-time leadership rival, Humza Yousaf will no doubt spend the next few days scrabbling around Holyrood making desperate promises to opposition parties in order to secure his survival, probably dreading having to go cap in hand to Ash Regan if all else fails. Were the vote to result in a draw, there won’t be a penalty shootout or even a replay, but the Presiding Officer will vote in favour of preserving the status quo. Should that be the way Humza Yousaf clings on to power, heading a minority administration and faced with the fact that one half of Holyrood voted for him to go, he can hardly lead the SNP into the upcoming General Election dreaming of victory. With Scottish Labour also intending to hold a vote of no confidence in the Scottish Government as a whole, one which could provoke an election should it succeed, the omens do not look especially optimistic for the First Minister at the moment; and it couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.

© The Editor

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