RAINMAN

This has not been the greatest of weeks for government. Two high profile cases in which sinister conspiracies committed by governments both past and present have rented the headlines; the crocodile tears of Paula Vennells when occupying the hot-seat at the Post Office inquiry is merely the latest instalment in a saga the Government is happy to let the shambles that is the privatised former public service take the blame for; but evidence has shown how cosily embedded the good folk from Fujitsu were in governmental circles, right at the same time they and the Post Office were denying their IT system was at fault when they both knew it was, and were both happy for innocent sub-postmasters to carry the can in order for them to save face. Then there has been the long-overdue conclusion to the infected blood scandal, something which goes back even further than the Post Office one. In this case, there was long-standing collusion between government and our saintly NHS to furiously scrub the blood of 3,000 dead from their hands in an industrial-scale cover-up and denial exercise. Nobody is entirely surprised when governments engage in such subterfuge, but one hopes the belated exposure of the NHS’s grotesque and shameful behaviour will finally wake people up to our unofficial state religion’s role in yet another outrage; it’s time they acknowledged the reality of a service which is appealing in theory and all-too often appalling in practice. So, bearing these two events in mind, how does a Prime Minister best bury bad news? Well, he calls an early General Election.

Hold the front page, and send the scandals scuttling away to a quieter spot in tomorrow’s edition! At the same time, the man who announced this front page news is a man who chooses to address the nation in the pissing rain and doesn’t even have the sense to employ an umbrella. This begs the question: would you buy a used car from such a man, or – failing that – vote for his Party? It’s not so much that he’s an especially slippery customer – certainly not compared to Sir Keir; but he just looked bloody stupid. If this ‘manly’ attitude towards the elements was supposed to signify a guy so macho that he can carry on in the face of climatic adversity and not stoop to the wimp’s option of a brolly, it just didn’t work. Yes, Mr Darcy did it for the ladies when he emerged from a lake with his wet shirt clinging to his torso, but the PM was fully suited and booted. He looked like he’d fallen in the Thames whilst attending the Henley Regatta. Moreover, his efforts probably weren’t helped by some wag beyond the Downing Street gates blasting out New Labour’s 1997 victory anthem, ‘Things Can Only Get Better’ by D:Ream.

‘Now is the moment for Britain to choose its future,’ he declared. ‘To decide whether we want to build on the progress we have made’ – sorry? – ‘or risk going back to square one, with no plan and no certainty. Earlier today, I spoke with His Majesty the King to request the dissolution of Parliament. The King has granted this request and we will have a General Election on 4 July.’ There was a reminder in that statement that Rishi Sunak is the first Prime Minister since Attlee not to have to approach Queen Elizabeth II to request the dissolution of Parliament, but also a reminder that the incumbent PM is at least not beholden to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act that hampered some of his predecessors in picking and choosing their moment. Officially, Sunak has opted for the summer rather than the anticipated autumn because dropping inflation rates are favourable; many expected he’d wait till the Party Conference season and then make the big announcement. Not so. This will be the first July General Election since 1945, and lest we forget, that one didn’t work out too well for the Conservative Party. The fact Sunak reckons a fall in inflation to 2.3% will somehow persuade voters to opt for the Tories perhaps shows just how short the straws he’s clutching at truly are. I suspect other issues might just figure when it comes to deciding where one’s cross will end up on the ballot paper.

With little worth crowing about to show for 14 years in government, Sunak decided to position his pitch in international waters, claiming ‘This Election will take place at a time when the world is more dangerous than it has been since the end of the Cold War.’ After nods to Ukraine, Putin, China, and the Middle East, the PM proclaimed, ‘Together we can stop the chaos, we can turn the page, we can start to rebuild Britain.’ Again, though, one remembers that five Tory leaders have promised to stop the chaos, turn the page and rebuild Britain for the past decade-and-a-half – and they have all blown it. The Conservatives’ record in office will loom over Sunak’s campaign like the shadow of that bloody giant tombstone loomed over Ed Miliband in 2015; if he attempts to use it as a source of reassuring continuity to the electorate it can only work against him. The sole slim chance he has of remaining in Downing Street lies in the hope that the traditional Tories who take out their dissatisfaction with the direction of the Party on local and by-elections will once again get cold feet when the big event comes around, and return to their comfort zone. Mind you, few pundits predicted how many diehard Labour voters would reject their own comfort zone last time round, so we shall see.

With the latest poll giving Labour a 23-point lead over the Tories, the hard work of playing catch-up would appear to be the job of the Conservatives. But it’s worth remembering just how much lost ground Labour have to make up following the wipe-out of 2019; they not only have to reclaim the old Labour strongholds that rejected them with such devastating venom five years ago; it’s also imperative they win big in Scotland – though the plummeting reputation of the SNP couldn’t have come at a more opportune moment for them. A Labour landslide ala 1997 seems unlikely purely because the Party is starting this marathon from a far weaker position than it began in 27 years ago – despite the fact that the current Tory Party is arguably even more unpopular than the one led by John Major. I suspect Labour will just about crawl over the finishing line ahead of the Tories, though a damn close run thing would be less a reflection of Conservative strength than an indication of the tough task ahead of Labour in recapturing all that lost ground.

Tactical voting will undoubtedly play its part to keep out the Tories in constituencies that Labour only has a slim chance of winning; road-tested in numerous by-elections over the past couple of years it’ll probably ensure the Lib Dems will nab a few seats and might possibly give Reform UK its first MPs. In the case of the latter, a great deal depends on whether or not the old Brexit Party’s secret weapon can be persuaded to give the hustings one more shot. ‘Richard Tice has got Reform up and running,’ said the Party’s honorary president, Nigel Farage. ‘The whole plan for Reform was that it was a six-year plan – fight this election, get ready for when Labour fail, which they will. Starmer’s first cabinet will not have the competence that Blair’s cabinet had by an absolute mile. Reform will fight the election. As for what I do, I’ll think about it overnight.’

So far, much has been made in the MSM of the date the Prime Minister has opted for, referencing everything from the fact some people will be on holiday to the possibility some might be distracted by Wimbledon or Glastonbury. In 2019, it was implied holding a General Election in December would mean bloody Christmas would serve as a distraction to the serious business of choosing a new government. Personally, I don’t really see what difference it makes. If you want to cast your vote, you’ll manage it somehow. The only problem confronting most voters will be who the hell to vote for.

© The Editor

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